Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19

被引:40
|
作者
Kronfeld-Schor, N. [1 ]
Stevenson, T. J. [2 ]
Nickbakhsh, S. [3 ]
Schernhammer, E. S. [4 ,5 ]
Dopico, X. C. [6 ]
Dayan, T. [7 ]
Martinez, M. [8 ]
Helm, B. [2 ,9 ]
机构
[1] Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Zool, IL-6998701 Tel Aviv, Israel
[2] Univ Glasgow, Inst Biodivers Anim Hlth & Comparat Med, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[3] Univ Glasgow, Ctr Virus Res, Inst Infect Immun & Inflammat, MRC, Glasgow, Lanark, Scotland
[4] Med Univ Vienna, Ctr Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Vienna, Austria
[5] Harvard Med Sch, Channing Div Network Med, Boston, MA 02115 USA
[6] Karolinska Inst, Dept Microbiol Tumor & Cell Biol, Solna, Sweden
[7] Tel Aviv Univ, Sch Zool, Steinhardt Museum Nat Hist, Tel Aviv, Israel
[8] Columbia Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, New York, NY USA
[9] Univ Groningen, Groningen Inst Evolutionary Life Sci, Groningen, Netherlands
关键词
seasonality; infectious diseases; global change; circannual; photoperiod; Anthropocene; LYMPHOCYTE BLASTOGENIC RESPONSES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CUTANEOUS LEISHMANIASIS; CIRCANNUAL RHYTHMS; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY; IMMUNE-RESPONSES; ARTIFICIAL-LIGHT; CHANGING WORLD; BLOOD-PRESSURE; VITAMIN-D;
D O I
10.1177/0748730420987322
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Not 1 year has passed since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its emergence, great uncertainty has surrounded the potential for COVID-19 to establish as a seasonally recurrent disease. Many infectious diseases, including endemic human coronaviruses, vary across the year. They show a wide range of seasonal waveforms, timing (phase), and amplitudes, which differ depending on the geographical region. Drivers of such patterns are predominantly studied from an epidemiological perspective with a focus on weather and behavior, but complementary insights emerge from physiological studies of seasonality in animals, including humans. Thus, we take a multidisciplinary approach to integrate knowledge from usually distinct fields. First, we review epidemiological evidence of environmental and behavioral drivers of infectious disease seasonality. Subsequently, we take a chronobiological perspective and discuss within-host changes that may affect susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases. Based on photoperiodic, circannual, and comparative human data, we not only identify promising future avenues but also highlight the need for further studies in animal models. Our preliminary assessment is that host immune seasonality warrants evaluation alongside weather and human behavior as factors that may contribute to COVID-19 seasonality, and that the relative importance of these drivers requires further investigation. A major challenge to predicting seasonality of infectious diseases are rapid, human-induced changes in the hitherto predictable seasonality of our planet, whose influence we review in a final outlook section. We conclude that a proactive multidisciplinary approach is warranted to predict, mitigate, and prevent seasonal infectious diseases in our complex, changing human-earth system.
引用
收藏
页码:35 / 54
页数:20
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Winter Is Coming: A Southern Hemisphere Perspective of the Environmental Drivers of SARS-CoV-2 and the Potential Seasonality of COVID-19
    Smit, Albertus J.
    Fitchett, Jennifer M.
    Engelbrecht, Francois A.
    Scholes, Robert J.
    Dzhivhuho, Godfrey
    Sweijd, Neville A.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH, 2020, 17 (16) : 1 - 28
  • [2] COVID-19: Questionable Seasonality
    Sheikh, Sadaf
    EURASIAN JOURNAL OF EMERGENCY MEDICINE, 2022, 21 (02) : 156 - 156
  • [3] Seasonality of endemic COVID-19
    Townsend, Jeffrey P.
    Hassler, Hayley B.
    Lamb, April D.
    Sah, Pratha
    Nishio, Aia Alvarez
    Nguyen, Cameron
    Tew, Alexandra D.
    Galvani, Alison P.
    Dornburg, Alex
    MBIO, 2023, 14 (06):
  • [4] Seasonality of COVID-19 incidence in the United States
    Shamsa, El Hussain
    Shamsa, Ali
    Zhang, Kezhong
    FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 2023, 11
  • [5] The impact of COVID-19 on gold seasonality
    Bentes, Sonia
    Gubareva, Mariya
    Teplova, Tamara
    APPLIED ECONOMICS, 2022, 54 (40) : 4700 - 4710
  • [6] COVID-19 seasonality in temperate countries
    D'Amico, Filippo
    Marmiere, Marilena
    Righetti, Beatrice
    Scquizzato, Tommaso
    Zangrillo, Alberto
    Puglisi, Riccardo
    Landoni, Giovanni
    ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, 2022, 206
  • [7] Temperature, Humidity, and Latitude Analysis to Estimate Potential Spread and Seasonality of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
    Sajadi, Mohammad M.
    Habibzadeh, Parham
    Vintzileos, Augustin
    Shokouhi, Shervin
    Miralles-Wilhelm, Fernando
    Amoroso, Anthony
    JAMA NETWORK OPEN, 2020, 3 (06)
  • [8] On the Environmental Determinants of COVID-19 Seasonality
    Choi, Yeon-Woo
    Tuel, Alexandre
    Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
    GEOHEALTH, 2021, 5 (06):
  • [9] Assessing the potential seasonality of COVID-19 dynamic in Africa: a mathematical modeling study
    Montcho, Yvette
    Amoussouvi, Koomi Toussaint
    Atchade, Mintode Nicodeme
    Salako, Kolawole Valere
    Hounkonnou, Mahouton Norbert
    Wolkewitz, Martin
    Kakai, Romain Glele
    MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT, 2025, 11 (02)
  • [10] Seasonality of Respiratory Viral Infections: Will COVID-19 Follow Suit?
    Audi, Amani
    AlIbrahim, Malak
    Kaddoura, Malak
    Hijazi, Ghina
    Yassine, Hadi M.
    Zaraket, Hassan
    FRONTIERS IN PUBLIC HEALTH, 2020, 8