A semi-empirical approach to projecting future sea-level rise

被引：978

作者：

Rahmstorf, Stefan ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

来源：

SCIENCE | 2007年 / 315卷 / 5810期

关键词：

ocean;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1135456

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude of warming above the temperatures of the pre-Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per degrees C. When applied to future warming scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100 of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.

引用

页码：368 / 370

页数：3

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