A swash-backwash model of the single epidemic wave

While there is a large literature on the form of epidemic waves in the time domain, models of their structure and shape in the spatial domain remain poorly developed. This paper concentrates on the changing spatial distribution of an epidemic wave over time and presents a simple method for identifying the leading and trailing edges of the spatial advance and retreat of such waves. Analysis of edge characteristics is used to (a) disaggregate waves into 'swash' and 'backwash' stages, (b) measure the phase transitions of areas from susceptible, S, through infective, I, to recovered, R, status (S -> I -> R) as dimensionless integrals and (c) estimate a spatial version of the basic reproduction number, R-0. The methods used are illustrated by application to measles waves in Iceland over a 60-year period from 1915 to 1974. Extensions of the methods for use with more complex waves are possible through modifying the threshold values used to define the start and end points of an event.