Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

被引：15

作者：

Lewis, Sophie C. ^{[1
]}

King, Andrew D. ^{[2
]}

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E. ^{[3
]}

Wehner, Michael F. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ New South Wales, Sch Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia

[2] Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Parkville, Vic, Australia

[3] Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[4] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA

来源：

EARTHS FUTURE | 2019年 / 7卷 / 09期

基金：

澳大利亚研究理事会;

关键词：

extreme events; climate change; attribution; communication; CLIMATE-CHANGE; TEMPERATURES; UNCERTAINTY; STATEMENTS; CMIP5; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1029/2019EF001273

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders. Key Points The paper presents standardized language for communicating extreme event attribution results Event results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties This standardized language will have benefits for clear communication and interpretation

引用

页码：1020 / 1026

页数：7