Arterial diameter following arteriovenous fistula creation predicts aneurysm progression

Objective: To investigate the relationship between arteriovenous fistula (AVF) arterial diameter (AD) and AVF aneurysm development and progression. Methods: This study identified all patients who underwent fistulograms which demonstrated AVF aneurysms meeting criteria and requiring surgical intervention between 01/01/2014 and 7/30/2016. Patient demographics were collected and AVF dimensions were measured on fistulograms. A control group with nonaneurysmal AVFs who had undergone serial fistulograms between 2013 and 2016 were identified and identical datasets collected. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA 14.0 using student's t-test, Chi square tests and linear regression. Results: 45 eligible patients were identified in the AVF aneurysm study group and 24 in the control group, with the mean age of AVF creation being older in the control group (61.8 vs 53 years, p = 0.03). The mean interval between AVF creation and first fistulogram in the study group was 1464 +/- 282 days, compared to an interval of 263 +/- 101 days in the control group (p = 0.003). The AD on the first fistulogram in those study group patients with aneurysms evident on first fistulogram was greater than in the control group (6.5 +/- 1.8 mm vs 5.0 +/- 1.8 mm, p = 0.003). The AD on first fistulogram of the study group predicted maximum aneurysm diameter on last fistulogram (r = 0.6, p = 0.03) as well as the interval between first fistulogram and surgical revision (r = -0.33, p = 0.03). Conclusion: AVF aneurysms are a later complication in access natural history and AD may help to predict their progression.