The Framingham prediction rule is not valid in a European population of treated hypertensive patients

Background Stratification of population groups according to cardiovascular risk level is recommended for primary prevention. Objective To assess whether the Framingham models could accurately predict the absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in a large cohort of middle-aged European patients with hypertension, and rank individual patients according to actual risk. Design A prospective cohort study comparing the actual risk with that predicted by either the Framingham equations or models derived from the INSIGHT study. Patients and setting From the INSIGHT prospective trial, conducted in eight countries of Western Europe and Israel, we selected 4407 European patients younger than 75 years without previous cardiovascular events. Interventions None. Main outcome measures Major cardiovascular events. Results In this population (45% men, mean age 64.1 years), 124 (2.8%) patients had CHD and 96 (2.2%) had strokes after a median follow-up of 3.7 years. Overestimation of absolute CHD risk by the Framingham equation was observed in all countries (from 2% in the UK to 7% in France), whereas predicted risk of stroke was close to the actual risk. However, patients in the highest risk quintile within each country had a threefold greater risk of a cardiovascular event than those in the lowest quintile. Conclusions The Framingham models should not be used to predict absolute CHD risk in the European population as a whole. However, these models may be used within each country, provided that cut-off points defining high-risk patients have been determined within each country. J Hypertens 20:1973-1980 (C) 2002 Lippincott Williams Wilkins.