Can Social Institutions Awaken "Sleeping Giants"? A Pilot Electoral Geography Study of Latinx Voter Turnout in Texas Counties in the 2016 US Presidential Election

The Latinx population is the second largest ethnic group in the United States. In Texas, nearly two fifths of the population is classified as Latinx, and Latinx persons make up over 28 percent of the state's eligible voters. Yet, both in Texas and nationwide, Latinx turnout is consistently and disproportionately low compared to other ethnic groups. Consequently, Latinx persons are often viewed, collectively, as a "sleeping giant" in U.S. politics-the group's weighty presence in the population has yet to make its full imprint on the ballot box. This article draws on data for the 2016 presidential election to gain insights into the electoral geography of Latinx voter turnout in Texas. Crucially, we estimate the extent to which the presence and density of certain formal social institutions vary systematically with county-level Latinx turnout, after controlling for common determinants of voting behavior. Employing a combination of King's ecological inference and weighted least squares regression, we find that place-based community organizations have a significant, positive relationship with Latinx turnout after accounting for common socioeconomic variables. These findings have important implications for policy and research, because they suggest a potential leverage point for waking a "sleeping giant" for future elections.