Financial/Real Sector Ratio as a Predictor of Economic Crisis: a Quantitative Study

The paper addresses the problem of financial and real sectors of economy distortion as a key predictor of economic cycle stage. To evaluate this hypothesis we propose quantum-based approach to evaluate corresponding uncertainty and wavelet transform to assess financial/real sectors of economy ratio as a predictor of economic crisis. The quantitative study is performed on the basis of US data on financial and real sectors of the economy volume, estimated for the period between 1867 and 2014. The paper reveals that implementation of wavelet transform allows to use financial/real sector ratio as a predictor of global crisis in a certain country about 4-5 years before the active phase of the crisis.