Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

被引：106

作者：

Wang, Zhili ^{[1
,2
]}

Lin, Lei ^{[3
,4
]}

Zhang, Xiaoye ^{[5
,6
]}

Zhang, Hua ^{[7
]}

Liu, Liangke ^{[8
]}

Xu, Yangyang ^{[9
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Key Lab Atmospher Chem CMA, Beijing, Peoples R China

[3] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[4] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[5] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China

[6] Chinese Acad Sci, IUN, Ctr Excellence Reg Atmospher Environm, Beijing, Peoples R China

[7] China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing, Peoples R China

[8] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, College Stn, TX USA

[9] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2017年 / 7卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

ATMOSPHERE MODEL; AIR-POLLUTION; PRECIPITATION; TEMPERATURE; EMISSIONS; AEROSOLS; INDEXES; CARBON; GASES;

D O I：

10.1038/srep46432

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 degrees C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 degrees C and 2 degrees C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 degrees C (from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 degrees C warming from 1.5 degrees C to 2 degrees C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 degrees C warming.

引用

页数：9

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