Predictors of sustained abstinence during psychosocial treatments for cocaine dependence

Using data from the National Institute of Drug Abuse Collaborative Cocaine Treatment Study, the authors examined 24 patient pretreatment variables as predictors of outcome. The most clinically meaningful outcome in the treatment of substance dependence-degree of sustained abstinence-was used. Predictor variables included demographic features, aspects of the disorder and the recovery environment, expectations about treatment, and beliefs about addiction, relapse, and the 12-step philosophy. Four of the 24 examined variables-craving, acuity of biomedical problems, belief in the 12-step philosophy, and expectations for improvement-were significantly predictive of degree of sustained abstinence using a Bonferroni-corrected alpha level. No significant interactions with treatment condition were noted. The joint effect of the 4 predictor variables had a clinically meaningful impact on outcome.