Sensitivity analysis and optimal control of COVID-19 dynamics based on SEIQR model

被引：39

作者：

Hussain, Takasar ^{[1
]}

Ozair, Muhammad ^{[1
]}

Ali, Farhad ^{[2
]}

Rehman, Sajid ur ^{[2
]}

Assiri, Taghreed A. ^{[3
]}

Mahmoud, Emad E. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] COMSATS Univ Islamabad, Dept Math, Attock Campus, Attock, Pakistan

[2] Kohat Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Math, Kohat, Pakistan

[3] Umm Al Qura Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Math, Mecca, Saudi Arabia

[4] Taif Univ, Coll Sci, Dept Math & Stat, POB 11099, At Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia

来源：

RESULTS IN PHYSICS | 2021年 / 22卷

关键词：

COVID-19; SIR mathematical model; Parameters estimation; forecasting;

D O I：

10.1016/j.rinp.2021.103956

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

It is of great curiosity to observe the effects of prevention methods and the magnitudes of the outbreak including epidemic prediction, at the onset of an epidemic. To deal with COVID-19 Pandemic, an SEIQR model has been designed. Analytical study of the model consists of the calculation of the basic reproduction number and the constant level of disease absent and disease present equilibrium. The model also explores number of cases and the predicted outcomes are in line with the cases registered. By parameters calibration, new cases in Pakistan are also predicted. The number of patients at the current level and the permanent level of COVID-19 cases are also calculated analytically and through simulations. The future situation has also been discussed, which could happen i f precautiona r y restrictions are adopted.

引用

页数：11

共 43 条

[1] Computational solutions of the HIV-1 infection of CD4+ T-cells fractional mathematical model that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with the effect of antiviral drug therapy [J].

Abdel-Aty, Abdel-Haleem ;

Khater, Mostafa M. A. ;

Dutta, Hemen ;

Bouslimi, Jamel ;

Omri, M. .

CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, 2020, 139

[2] Fractal-fractional mathematical modeling and forecasting of new cases and deaths of COVID-19 epidemic outbreaks in India [J].

Abdulwasaa, Mansour A. ;

Abdo, Mohammed S. ;

Shah, Kamal ;

Nofal, Taher A. ;

Panchal, Satish K. ;

Kawale, Sunil V. ;

Abdel-Aty, Abdel-Haleem .

RESULTS IN PHYSICS, 2021, 20

[3] Predictions of coronavirus COVID-19 distinct cases in Pakistan through an artificial neural network [J].

Ahmad, Iftikhar ;

Muhammad Asad, Syed .

EPIDEMIOLOGY & INFECTION, 2020, 148

[4] Analysis and prediction of the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan [J].

Ali, Mohsin ;

Imran, Mudassar ;

Khan, Adnan .

JOURNAL OF BIOLOGICAL DYNAMICS, 2020, 14 (01) :730-747

[5]

Alnaser WE, 2020, INF SCI LETT, V9, P51, DOI [10.18576/isl/090201, DOI 10.18576/ISL/090201]

[6] Using the kalman filter with Arima for the COVID-19 pandemic dataset of Pakistan [J].

Aslam, Muhammad .

DATA IN BRIEF, 2020, 31

[7] Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe [J].

Atangana, Abdon ;

Igret Araz, Seda .

ADVANCES IN DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS, 2021, 2021 (01)

[8] Mathematical model of COVID-19 spread in Turkey and South Africa: theory, methods, and applications [J].

Atangana, Abdon ;

Araz, Seda Igret .

ADVANCES IN DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS, 2020, 2020 (01)

[9] Modelling the spread of COVID-19 with new fractal-fractional operators: Can the lockdown save mankind before vaccination? [J].

Atangana, Abdon .

CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS, 2020, 136

[10]

Atangana Ernestine, 2020, Results Phys, V19, P103425, DOI 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103425

← 1 2 3 4 5 →