Evaluating Impact Using Time-Series Data

被引:87
作者
Wauchope, Hannah S. [1 ,2 ]
Amano, Tatsuya [3 ,4 ]
Geldmann, Jonas [1 ,5 ]
Johnston, Alison [1 ,6 ]
Simmons, Benno, I [1 ,2 ,7 ]
Sutherland, William J. [1 ]
Jones, Julia P. G. [8 ]
机构
[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Zool, Conservat Sci Grp, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, England
[2] Univ Exeter, Coll Life & Environm Sci, Ctr Ecol & Conservat, Penryn TR10 9FE, England
[3] Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
[4] Univ Queensland, Ctr Biodivers & Conservat Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
[5] Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Macroecol Evolut & Climate, Globe Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
[6] Cornell Univ, Lab Ornithol, New York, NY USA
[7] Univ Sheffield, Dept Anim & Plant Sci, Sheffield S10 2TN, S Yorkshire, England
[8] Bangor Univ, Sch Nat Sci, Bangor LL57 2UW, Gwynedd, Wales
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
SEGMENTED REGRESSION; PROTECTED AREAS; BACI; FRAGMENTATION; PROGRAM; ECOLOGY; DESIGNS; TERM;
D O I
10.1016/j.tree.2020.11.001
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Humanity's impact on the environment is increasing, as are strategies to conserve biodiversity, but a lack of understanding about how interventions affect ecological and conservation outcomes hampers decision-making. Time series are often used to assess impacts, but ecologists tend to compare average values from before to after an impact; overlooking the potential for the intervention to elicit a change in trend. Without methods that allow for a range of responses, erroneous conclusions can be drawn, especially for large, multi-time-series datasets, which are increasingly available. Drawing on literature in other disciplines and pioneering work in ecology, we present a standardised framework to robustly assesses how interventions, like natural disasters or conservation policies, affect ecological time series.
引用
收藏
页码:196 / 205
页数:10
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