Assessing the influence of climate on wintertime SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

被引:30
作者
Baker, Rachel E. [1 ,2 ]
Yang, Wenchang [3 ]
Vecchi, Gabriel A. [1 ,3 ]
Metcalf, C. Jessica E. [2 ,4 ]
Grenfell, Bryan T. [2 ,4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Princeton Univ, High Meadows Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[2] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[3] Princeton Univ, Dept Geosci, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[4] Princeton Univ, Sch Publ & Int Affairs, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA
[5] NIH, Div Int Epidemiol & Populat Studies, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1038/s41467-021-20991-1
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
High susceptibility has limited the role of climate in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic to date. However, understanding a possible future effect of climate, as susceptibility declines and the northern-hemisphere winter approaches, is an important open question. Here we use an epidemiological model, constrained by observations, to assess the sensitivity of future SARS-CoV-2 disease trajectories to local climate conditions. We find this sensitivity depends on both the susceptibility of the population and the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in reducing transmission. Assuming high susceptibility, more stringent NPIs may be required to minimize outbreak risk in the winter months. Our results suggest that the strength of NPIs remain the greatest determinant of future pre-vaccination outbreak size. While we find a small role for meteorological forecasts in projecting outbreak severity, reducing uncertainty in epidemiological parameters will likely have a more substantial impact on generating accurate predictions. Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the early phase of the pandemic has been driven by high population susceptibility, but virus sensitivity to climate may play a role in future outbreaks. Here, the authors simulate SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in winter assuming climate dependence is similar to an endemic coronavirus strain.
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页数:7
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