Scattering of spinning black holes from exponentiated soft factors

We provide evidence that the classical scattering of two spinning black holes is controlled by the soft expansion of exchanged gravitons. We show how an exponentiation of Cachazo-Strominger soft factors, acting on massive higher-spin amplitudes, can be used to find spin contributions to the aligned-spin scattering angle, conjecturally extending previously known results to higher orders in spin at one-loop order. The extraction of the classical limit is accomplished via the on-shell leading-singularity method and using massive spinor-helicity variables. The three-point amplitude for arbitrary-spin massive particles minimally coupled to gravity is expressed in an exponential form, and in the infinite-spin limit it matches the effective stress-energy tensor of the linearized Kerr solution. A four-point gravitational Compton amplitude is obtained from an extrapolated soft theorem, equivalent to gluing two exponential three-point amplitudes, and becomes itself an exponential operator. The construction uses these amplitudes to: 1) recover the known tree-level scattering angle at all orders in spin, 2) recover the known one-loop linear-in-spin interaction, 3) match a previous conjectural expression for the one-loop scattering angle at quadratic order in spin, 4) propose new one-loop results through quartic order in spin. These connections link the computation of higher-multipole interactions to the study of deeper orders in the soft expansion.