Does risk aversion accelerate optimal forest rotation under uncertainty?

被引:40
作者
Alvarez, Luis H. R. [1 ]
Koskela, Erkki
机构
[1] Turku Sch Econ & Business Adm, Dept Econ Quantitat Methods Management, FIN-20500 Turku, Finland
[2] Univ Helsinki, Dept Econ, FIN-00014 Helsinki, Finland
[3] CESifo, Munich, Germany
[4] IZA, Bonn, Germany
基金
芬兰科学院;
关键词
forest rotation; risk aversion; stochastic interest rates; optimal stopping;
D O I
10.1016/j.jfe.2006.06.001
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We use a Wicksellian single rotation framework to analyze the impact of a stochastic mean-reverting interest rate process on the optimal harvesting threshold and thereby the expected length of the rotation period, when the forest stand value follows a geometric Brownian motion and landowners are risk-averse. We solve explicitly the two-dimensional path-dependent rotation problem and demonstrate that higher interest rate volatility increases, while higher risk aversion decreases, the optimal harvesting threshold. Under risk aversion higher forest value volatility decreases the optimal harvesting threshold, while it has no effect tinder risk neutrality. Numerical illustrations indicate that higher interest rate volatility will raise the expected rotation period at an increasing rate, while higher forest value volatility will decrease its sensitivity under risk aversion. (C) 2006 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:171 / 184
页数:14
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