Predictors of new onset diabetes after renal transplantation

The development of new onset diabetes after transplantation (NODAT) is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. This study aimed at identifying risk factors for the development of NODAT. We performed a retrospective review of 787 renal transplants performed between 1994 and 2004 at a single centre. NODAT was diagnosed in patients who had two random plasma glucose concentrations > 11.1 mmol/L after the first month post-transplant or patients who required treatment for hyperglycaemia within the first month and continued treatment thereafter. The incidence of NODAT was 7.7%. The incidence of NODAT requiring either insulin or oral hypoglycaemic agents was 4.5%. Risk factors for the development of NODAT were older age (HR 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07, p < 0.01), heavier weight at time of transplantation (HR 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07, p < 0.01), higher mean pre-transplant random plasma glucose concentrations (HR 1.54, 95% CI: 1.14-2.08, p < 0.01), higher plasma glucose within the first seven d post-transplant (HR 1.27, 95% CI: 1.09-1.47, p < 0.01) and use of tacrolimus (HR 3.70, 95% CI: 1.61-8.46, p < 0.01). Ten yr actuarial patient survival was 67.1% in patients with NODAT compared with 81.9% for those without diabetes and 65.3% in patients known to have diabetes pre-transplant. There was no difference in graft survival. We have identified a high-risk group in which attempts should be made to reduce the incidence of NODAT by tailoring immunosuppression, lifestyle modification and selecting non-diabetogenic medications. Improvements in management of patients at higher risk of NODAT may help reduce the incidence of deaths with a functioning graft.