A pathway to rapid global solar energy deployment? Exploring the solar dominance hypothesis

Many observers believe that solar with storage, plus EVs, are emerging as the inevitable future of the energy economy. How fast could this transition occur? This paper reviews the Solar Dominance Hypothesis (SDH). The SDH argues that solar, storage, and related energy and business model innovations are fundamentally disruptive, not incremental technologies. For economic reasons, solar plus storage will provide at least half of electric power generation globally by 2030. In evaluating challenges to the hypothesis, we argue that local, regional and national policy could either impede or substantially support the speed at which solar dominance materializes. At the same time, if the hypothesis is in fact on track, "energy policy' in the 2020's will have to transition to a focus addressing economic, political and social concerns including job transitions, stranded economic assets and geopolitical shifts driven by energy and related disruptions.