Among three main stages of the process of earthquake nucleation long-, middle- and short-term the final stage is characterized by abrupt activation of the process of stress-strain state variation. The strain rates increase by orders of magnitude throughout the whole region of preparation, which increases the signal-to-noise ratio, and therefore the fracture, is easier to detect through monitoring geophysical parameters. The near-critical stresses existing in the Earth's crust and near the surface make it necessary to take into account the real rheology of the rocks, which, as is well known, is characterized by clearly pronounced plastic properties. The condition is favorable for developing creep processes in general and in its avalanche phase immediately before the fracture. The process is completely nonlinear but not chaotic. Based on the assumption that the attenuation of the stress-strain field is proportional to r(-3), a possible scenario of the final stage of earthquake nucleation process is proposed on the basis of the slip weakening mechanism in the source and the associated mosaic pattern of precursors on the Earth's surface. The formulas for estimating the ultimate distance of precursor detection and the duration of precursor events depending of normalized epicentral distance at the final stage of inelastic deformation preceding brittle failure of rocks are proposed. The data of electromagnetic precursors are interpreted in terms of a multiple fracture model. The results of in situ observations of electric field anomalies in the atmosphere are analyzed in relation to seismic activity. The possibility of constructing a physical model for the generation of a quasi-stable field and electromagnetic emission on the basis of the deformation process prior to an earthquake is discussed. Numerical estimates are obtained for polarization density and life time of an ensemble of electric dipoles generated in surface layers of the crust due to opening of microcracks and other dislocation mechanisms. The origin of quasi-constant electric field along a deformation region on a scale of the preparation zone is advantageous for the propagation of seismic anomalous atmospheric electric fields from the Earth's surface into the ionosphere. The field can be regarded as a physical agent of lithosphere-ionosphere connection. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
