The economic viability of commercial wind plants in Greece - A complete sensitivity analysis

The influence of the governing techno-economic parameters on the economic behaviour of commercial wind parks is investigated. For this purpose, a complete cost-benefit analysis model, properly adapted for the Greek market, is developed in order to calculate the pay-back period and the economic efficiency of similar investments in the energy production sector. Moreover, the impact of various parameters - such as capital cost, return on investment index, local inflation rate index, electricity price escalation rate, installation capacity factor, M&O cost, turn-on key cost of the power plant, size of wind turbines used - on the economic viability and attractiveness is extensively investigated, using a well-elaborated simple "expert system" type numerical code. Finally, the prediction results are summarised in a representative sensitivity analysis map, including the most reasonable economic scenarios. Taking into account the analytical results of the proposed study along with the existence of high wind potential regions in Greece, a remarkable growth of the wind energy sector is expected in the near future, leading to considerable investment profits and offering a strong position (share) of the liberalised local power market. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.