Spatial Determinants of Land Conversion for Various Urban Use: A Case Study of Beijing

Studying the factors that influence the expansion of different types of construction land is instrumental in formulating targeted policies and regulations, and can reduce or prevent the negative impacts of unreasonable land use changes. Using land use survey data of Beijing (2001 and 2010), an autologistic model quantitatively analyzed the leading driving forces and differences in four types of construction land expansion (industrial, residential, public service, and commercial land types), focusing on the impact of spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that the influencing factors vary greatly for different types of construction land expansion; the same factor may have a different impact on different construction land, and both planning factors and spatial autocorrelation variables have a significant positive effect on the four types. Accordingly, the municipal government should consider the differences in the expansion mechanisms and driving forces of different construction land and formulate suitable planning schemes, observe the impact of spatial autocorrelation on construction land expansion, and guide spatial agglomeration through policies while appropriately controlling the scale of expansion. The methods and policy recommendations of this research are significant for urban land expansion research and policy formulations in other transition economies and developing countries.