State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States

被引：84

作者：

Unwin, H. Juliette T. ^{[1
]}

Mishra, Swapnil ^{[1
]}

Bradley, Valerie C. ^{[2
]}

Gandy, Axel ^{[3
]}

Mellan, Thomas A. ^{[1
]}

Coupland, Helen ^{[1
]}

Ish-Horowicz, Jonathan ^{[3
]}

Vollmer, Michaela A. C. ^{[1
]}

Whittaker, Charles ^{[1
]}

Filippi, Sarah L. ^{[3
]}

Xi, Xiaoyue ^{[3
]}

Monod, Melodie ^{[3
]}

Ratmann, Oliver ^{[3
]}

Hutchinson, Michael ^{[2
]}

Valka, Fabian ^{[3
]}

Zhu, Harrison ^{[3
]}

Hawryluk, Iwona ^{[1
]}

Milton, Philip ^{[1
]}

Ainslie, Kylie E. C. ^{[1
]}

Baguelin, Marc ^{[1
,4
]}

Boonyasiri, Adhiratha ^{[5
]}

Brazeau, Nick F. ^{[1
]}

Cattarino, Lorenzo ^{[1
]}

Cucunuba, Zulma ^{[1
]}

Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina ^{[1
]}

Dorigatti, Ilaria ^{[1
]}

Eales, Oliver D. ^{[1
]}

Eaton, Jeffrey W. ^{[6
]}

van Elsland, Sabine L. ^{[1
]}

FitzJohn, Richard G. ^{[1
]}

Gaythorpe, Katy A. M. ^{[1
]}

Green, William ^{[1
]}

Hinsley, Wes ^{[1
]}

Jeffrey, Benjamin ^{[1
]}

Knock, Edward ^{[1
]}

Laydon, Daniel J. ^{[1
]}

Lees, John ^{[1
]}

Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma ^{[1
]}

Nouvellet, Pierre ^{[1
,7
]}

Okell, Lucy ^{[1
]}

Parag, Kris, V ^{[1
]}

Siveroni, Igor ^{[1
]}

Thompson, Hayley A. ^{[1
]}

Walker, Patrick ^{[1
]}

Walters, Caroline E. ^{[1
]}

Watson, Oliver J. ^{[1
,8
]}

Whittles, Lilith K. ^{[1
]}

Ghani, Azra C. ^{[1
]}

Ferguson, Neil M. ^{[1
]}

Riley, Steven ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Imperial Coll, Abdul Latif Jameel Inst Dis & Emergency Analyt J, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England

[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Stat, Oxford, England

[3] Imperial Coll, Dept Math, London, England

[4] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[5] Imperial Coll London, NIHR Hlth Protect Res Unit Healthcare Associated, London, England

[6] Imperial Coll, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England

[7] Univ Sussex, Sch Life Sci, Brighton, E Sussex, England

[8] Brown Univ, Dept Lab Med & Pathol, Providence, RI 02912 USA

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2020年 / 11卷 / 01期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-020-19652-6

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework. For each state, we estimate the number of individuals that have been infected, the number of individuals that are currently infectious and the time-varying reproduction number (the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person). We use changes in mobility to capture the impact that non-pharmaceutical interventions and other behaviour changes have on the rate of transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We estimate that R-t was only below one in 23 states on 1st June. We also estimate that 3.7% [3.4%-4.0%] of the total population of the US had been infected, with wide variation between states, and approximately 0.01% of the population was infectious. We demonstrate good 3 week model forecasts of deaths with low error and good coverage of our credible intervals.

引用

页数：9

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