The Effect of Time Distribution Shape on a Complex Epidemic Model

被引:2
作者
Camitz, Martin [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Svensson, Ake [4 ]
机构
[1] Karolinska Inst, Dept Med Epidemiol & Biostat, Stockholm, Sweden
[2] Swedish Inst Infect Dis Control, Dept Epidemiol, Stockholm, Sweden
[3] Swedish Inst Infect Dis Control, S-17182 Solna, Sweden
[4] Stockholm Univ, Dept Math Stat, S-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
关键词
Prevention and control; Stochastic process; Epidemiology; Infectious time; Latency time; Epidemic model; INFECTIOUS PERIODS; INCUBATION PERIOD; GLOBAL EPIDEMICS; SPREAD; INFLUENZA; PREDICTABILITY; TRANSFUSION; DISEASE; WORLD;
D O I
10.1007/s11538-009-9430-x
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
In elaborating a model of the progress of an epidemic, it is necessary to make assumptions about the distributions of latency times and infectious times. In many models, the often implicit assumption is that these times are independent and exponentially distributed. We explore the effects of altering the distribution of latency and infectious times in a complex epidemic model with regional divisions connected by a travel intensity matrix. We show a delay in spread with more realistic latency times. More realistic infectiousness times lead to faster epidemics. The effects are similar but accentuated when compared to a purely homogeneous mixing model.
引用
收藏
页码:1902 / 1913
页数:12
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