Heterogeneity in patterns of progression of chronic kidney disease

Background Progression of kidney disease is a deceptively simple word for a complex bio-clinical process, evidenced by the number of definitions in the literature. This has led to confusion and differences in interpretation of studies. Methods We describe different patterns of progression, the performance of different definitions of progression and factors associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in a public renal service in Australia, in a study of patients enrolled in the CKD.QLD Registry with a minimum of 2 years' follow up. Results Nine patterns of changing estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) over two consecutive 12-month periods were identified. Most common was a stable eGFR over 2 years (30%), and the least was a sustainable improvement of eGFR over both periods (2.1%). There was a lack of congruence between the several definitions of progression of CKD evaluated. More people progressed using the definition of decline of eGFR of >5 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year (year 1 = 30.2%, year 2 = 20.7%) and the least using development of end-stage renal disease (year 1 = 5.4%, year 2 = 9.9%). Age (40-59, >= 80 years), degree of proteinuria at baseline (nephrotic range) and CKD aetiology (renal vascular disease, diabetic nephropathy) were significantly associated with eGFR decline over 2 years. Conclusions This is one of the first demonstrations of the great variations among and within individuals in the progression of CKD over even a period as short as 2 years. Findings suggest considerable potential for renal function recovery and stability while demonstrating the importance of using identical definitions for comparisons across datasets from different sources.