Gauging the impacts of urbanization on CO2 emissions from the construction industry: Evidence from China

The construction industry has aided rapid urbanization in China, significantly contributing to CO2 emissions. However, few studies have investigated the impacts of urbanization on CO2 emissions from the construction industry and the regional heterogeneity or considered the construction-related factors for urban construction scale to represent urbanization. To compensate for these limitations, this study aimed to explore the impacts of urbanization on CO2 emissions from the construction industry. Herein, the urban construction scale was used to represent urbanization, along with population size, economic growth, and technology level. An augmented Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology model was used to estimate the cross-province panel data from three regions in China during 2008-2017. The heterogeneity due to regional differences in urbanization levels was addressed by classifying China into three regions- urbanized, urbanizing, and under-urbanized. The findings suggest that population size, economic growth, construction of residential buildings, and technology level were the primary factors impacting CO2 emissions, and the impact presented a declining trend from the urbanized to the urbanizing and under-urbanized regions. Specifically, an inverted U-shaped relationship existed between CO2 emissions and urban economic growth, and the urbanized region indicated a higher inflection point than other regions. The urbanization ratio was negatively correlated with CO2 emissions, while the energy intensity, per capita floor space of urban residential buildings, and per capita length of drainpipes were positively correlated with the CO2 emissions in all three regions. Further, the technology level was conducive to CO2 emissions reduction, however, it requires further improvement. The per capita area of paved roads exerted significantly negative effects in the urbanized region and insignificant in the urbanizing and under-urbanized regions. Overall, these results can help formulate policies to mitigate the construction industry's carbon emissions.