Importance and uncertainty analysis of flue gas scrubber systems with extreme reliability parameter values

Although reliability analyses have been used to improve the reliability of industrial systems, generic reliability data from publications, such as component failure intensities and repair times, are used to calculate reliability measures instead of the real reliability data collected from the plant. One reason is that the repair history of the components is not well managed in the plant. In this work, the effect of extreme reliability parameter values on system reliability and unavailability is studied. To do this, importance and uncertainty analysis of the components of flue gas scrubber systems is carried out, and results calculated with the extreme reliability parameter values are compared with those with the mean reliability values of the systems. The different reliability parameter values can give us totally different ranks of the components critical to the reliability of the representative scrubber system. Consequently, the effort to establish a reliable database is emphasized to perform accurate reliability analysis of the system. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.