Patterns Analysis and Outlook of Social Steel Stock in China Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis and Logistic Model

Steel stock is an important part of social wealth in social-economic system. Using dynamic material flow analysis and Logistic model, social steel stock on Chinese national level is analyzed for the period of 1949 to 2013, and is forecasted during 2014 and 2100. The results show that social steel stock highly correlates with the stage of Chinese industrialization. Total stock and per capita stock of steel grew slowly with the evolution of industrialization from the year of 1949, then grew quickly and rapidly in the earlier stage and middle stage of industrialization respectively, presenting the obvious characteristic of three stages. According to the experience of industrialized countries and the Logistic results from SPSS, Chinese per capita stock of steel will increase further, and will reach saturation in about 2035, then China will be in the stage of post industrialization. Under the population growth scenario in medium variance from United Nations. Chinese total stock of steel will increase rapidly at first and then decline gradually after the year of 2013.