Computer modelling of the rural energy system and of CO2 emissions for Bangladesh

We present projections of rural energy supply and demand and assess the contributions to global warming. The output of a dynamic system model is used in the LEAP model and overall energy balances are then compiled using a bottom-up approach. Biomass fuels constitute the major energy sources for rural people. A major share of the fuel is consumed for cooking using traditional stoves which have an efficiency less than 10%. Most of the biomass comes from crop wastes. Conservative estimates show tremendous pressure on rural forests for fuelwood. As the result, there is overcutting of rural forests resulting in environmental degradation. Bangladesh is responsible for a small fraction of the total anthropogenic contribution of CO2 but could be seriously affected by climatic change. Energy planning for sustainable development with LEAP is made more effective by using a complementary dynamic system model. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.