Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

被引：62

作者：

Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino ^{[1
,2
]}

Elhorst, J. Paul ^{[3
]}

Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Rural Fed Univ Pernambuco, Dept Econ, Rua Dr Odilon Lima 44-02, BR-50850010 Recife, PE, Brazil

[2] Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, Rua Dr Odilon Lima 44-02, BR-50850010 Recife, PE, Brazil

[3] Univ Groningen, Fac Econ & Business, POB 800, NL-9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands

[4] Univ Fed Pernambuco, Dept Econ, Ave Prof Moraes Rego 1235, BR-50670901 Recife, PE, Brazil

来源：

REGIONAL STUDIES | 2017年 / 51卷 / 06期

关键词：

population growth; regions; spatial interaction; dynamic spatial panel models; spillover effects; INCOME INEQUALITY; ECONOMIC-GROWTH; DATA MODEL; BRAZIL; SPECIFICATION; TIME; AREA;

D O I：

10.1080/00343404.2016.1144922

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in two spatial econometric specifications in combination with a wide range of potential neighbourhood matrices are tested against each other. The best performing combination counts five determinants producing significant long-term spatial spillover effects. Ignoring these spillovers, as many previous population growth studies have done, is shown to underestimate their impact and thus the effectiveness of policy measures acting on these determinants.

引用

页码：894 / 908

页数：15

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