Projection in Future Drought Hazard of South Korea Based on RCP Climate Change Scenario 8.5 Using SPEI

被引：10
作者：
Kim, Byung Sik [1 ]
Chang, In Gi [1 ]
Sung, Jang Hyun [2 ]
Han, Hae Jin [3 ]
机构：
[1] Kangwon Natl Univ, Sch Disaster Prevent, Dept Urban & Environm Disaster Prevent, 345 Jungang Ro, Samcheck Si, Gangwon Do, South Korea
[2] GeumRiver Flood Control Off, Minist Land Infrastruct & Transport, Gongju Si, Chungcheongnam, South Korea
[3] Korea Environm Inst, 370 Sicheong Daero, Sejong Si, South Korea
来源：
ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY | 2016年 / 2016卷
关键词：
REGIONAL CLIMATE; SENSITIVITY; IMPACT; BASIN;
D O I：
10.1155/2016/4148710
中图分类号：
P4 [大气科学（气象学）];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) analysis was conducted using monthly precipitation data and temperature data on a 12.5 km x 12.5 km resolution based on a Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario, and the characteristics of drought were identified by the threshold. In addition, the changes in drought severity and intensity were projected using the threshold based on the run-length concept and frequency analysis. As a result of the analysis, the probability density function of the total drought and maximum drought intensity moved the upper tail for the upcoming years, and the average drought intensity was also projected to become stronger in the future than in the present to the right side. Through this, it could be projected that the drought scale and frequency and the drought intensity will become severer over South Korea because of future climate change.
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页数：23
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