Model-based Power Generation Estimation of Solar Panels using Weather Forecast for Microgrid Application

An electrical power production estimation model has been proposed in this paper for PV panels. The model uses weather forecast data of a time interval (e.g. one day ahead) as input and gives an estimation to electricity generation for the same time interval. The proposed method takes into account the thermal effects taking place in a solar panel as well as the temperature dependent nature of the solar panel efficiency. The results of this paper could be utilized by transmission system operator, distribution system operator, virtual power plant and microgrid operators. The precise mathematical model of the renewable energy resources, which the function of the weather forecast is necessary for the very large scale integration to the electrical transmission system.