Effect of different vaccine strategies for the control of Japanese encephalitis in mainland China from 1961 to 2020: A quantitative analysis

Background: We aimed to quantify the impact of each vaccine strategy (including the P3-inactivated vaccine strategy [1968-1987], the SA 14-14-2 live-attenuated vaccine strategy [1988-2007], and the Expanded Program on Immunization [EPI, 2008-2020]) on the incidence of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in regions with different economic development levels. Methods: The JE incidence in mainland China from 1961 to 2020 was summarized by year, then modeled and analyzed using an interrupted time series analysis. Results: After the P3-inactivated vaccine was used, the JE incidence in Eastern China, Central China, Western China and Northeast China in 1968 decreased by 39.80 % (IRR = 0.602, P < 0.001), 7.80 % (IRR = 0.922, P < 0.001), 10.80 % (IRR = 0.892, P < 0.001) and 31.90 % (IRR = 0.681, P < 0.001); the slope/trend of the JE incidence from 1968 to 1987 decreased by 30.80 % (IRR = 0.692, P < 0.001), 29.30 % (IRR = 0.707, P < 0.001), 33.00 % (IRR = 0.670, P < 0.001) and 41.20 % (IRR = 0.588, P < 0.001). After the SA 14-14-2 live-attenuated vaccine was used, the JE incidence in Eastern China and Northeast China in 1988 decreased by 2.60 % (IRR = 0.974, P = 0.009) and 14.70 % (IRR = 0.853, P < 0.001); the slope/trend of the JE incidence in Eastern China and Central China from 1988 to 2007 decreased by 4.60 % (IRR = 0.954, P < 0.001) and 4.70 % (IRR = 0.953, P < 0.001). After the EPI was implemented, the JE incidence in Eastern China, Central China and Western China in 2008 decreased by 10.50 % (IRR = 0.895, P = 0.013), 18.00 % (IRR = 0.820, P < 0.001) and 24.20 % (IRR = 0.758, P < 0.001), the slope/ trend of the JE incidence in Eastern China from 2008 to 2020 decreased by 17.80 % (IRR = 0.822, P < 0.001). Conclusions: Each vaccine strategy has different effects on the JE incidence in regions with different economic development. Additionally, some economically underdeveloped regions have gradually become the main areas of the JE outbreak. Therefore, mainland China should provide economic assistance to areas with low economic development and improve JE vaccination plans in the future to control the epidemic of JE.