Anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody treatment in newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes patients: a hypothetical modelling analysis

P>Aims Although limited clinical data exist for anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody therapies, it is believed that they may influence glycaemic control, endogenous insulin secretion and hypoglycaemic event rates in individuals newly diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes. In the absence of suitable empirical evidence, the objective of this study was to estimate the potential long-term clinical outcomes associated with treatment via a hypothetical modelling analysis. Methods Analyses were performed using a published and validated computer simulation model of diabetes in a hypothetical US cohort based on published literature and expert opinion. The efficacy of anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody treatment was estimated from clinical data and expert opinion and simulations were performed over a 60-year time horizon. The impact on quality of life associated with treatment was also captured via published utility values. Results Assuming that a treatment course of an anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody produced an initial reduction in glycated haemoglobin of -0.8%, and that the effects persisted for up to 5 years, treatment was projected to lead to an increase in undiscounted life expectancy of 0.43 years and an increase in quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.36 quality-adjusted life years compared with conventional exogenous insulin. Conclusions A course of a hypothetical anti-CD3 monoclonal antibody treatment associated with improved glycaemic control and, potentially, the preservation of pancreatic beta-cell function was estimated to lead to improved life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy compared with conventional treatment in patients with newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes.