What predicts progression and regression of urinary albumin excretion in the nondiabetic population?

An increase or decrease in urinary albumin excretion (UAE) is associated with, respectively, a higher or lower risk for renal and cardiovascular disease, independent of widely known cardiovascular risk factors. This study aimed to identify factors that are associated with changes in UAE in the nondiabetic population using data of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End stage Disease (PREVEND) Study, a community-based prospective cohort study. Data of the 6647 nondiabetic participants who completed the first (1997 through 2001) and second (2001 through 2003) screening were used. Change in UAE was categorized as regression (n = 650), stable (n = 5240), or progression (n = 757) on the basis of change in class during follow-up, with classes being a UAE < 15, 15 to 30, 30 to 300, and > 300 mg/24 h. With the use of stepwise forward multinomial regression analysis changes in BP, fasting glucose concentration, and start of antihypertensive drugs were found to be the most important modifiable variables associated with the risk for progression and regression (P < 0.01 for likelihood ratio test). The odds ratios to develop regression or progression of UAE during follow-up were 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57 to 0.73) and 1.91 (95% CI 1.72 to 2.12), respectively, per 10-mmHg increase in BP during follow-up, 0.89 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.98) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.01 to 1.17), respectively, per 1-mmol/L increase of fasting glucose levels during follow-up, and 1.57 (95% CI 1.21 to 2.06) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.51 to 0.95), respectively, for start of antihypertensive drugs during follow-up. These associations were independent of baseline BP, glucose, body mass index, estimated GFR, and UAE and changes in high-sensitivity C-reactive protein during follow-up. In conclusion, changes in glucose concentration and BP and start of antihypertensive drugs (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers in > 50% of cases) are associated with progression and regression of UAE in the nondiabetic population. Although associations do not necessarily suggest causality, it is hypothesized that in the general population, the most important ways to reduce UAE are by lowering glucose concentration and BP (including start of antihypertensive medication), even in normotensive, nondiabetic individuals.