Evaluating the Bovine Tuberculosis Eradication Mechanism and Its Risk Factors in England's Cattle Farms

被引:3
作者
Sedighi, Tabassom [1 ]
Varga, Liz [2 ]
机构
[1] Cranfield Univ, Sch Water Energy & Environm SWEE, Ctr Environm & Agr Informat, Cranfield MK43 0AL, Beds, England
[2] UCL, Fac Engn, Dept Civil Environm & Geomat Engn, London WC1E 6BT, England
关键词
evaluation; infectious disease modelling; dynamic bayesian network; bovine tuberculosis; sensitivity analysis; planning; BAYESIAN NETWORKS; MYCOBACTERIUM-BOVIS; TRANSMISSION; DENSITY; SCIENCE; DISEASE; BADGERS;
D O I
10.3390/ijerph18073451
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Controlling bovine tuberculosis (bTB) disease in cattle farms in England is seen as a challenge for farmers, animal health, environment and policy-makers. The difficulty in diagnosis and controlling bTB comes from a variety of factors: the lack of an accurate diagnostic test which is higher in specificity than the currently available skin test; isolation periods for purchased cattle; and the density of active badgers, especially in high-risk areas. In this paper, to enable the complex evaluation of bTB disease, a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is designed with the help of domain experts and available historical data. A significant advantage of this approach is that it represents bTB as a dynamic process that evolves periodically, capturing the actual experience of testing and infection over time. Moreover, the model demonstrates the influence of particular risk factors upon the risk of bTB breakdown in cattle farms.
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页数:24
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