Background: While there are plenty of studies investigating the market penetration of new technologies, phase-out processes of a predominant technology are rarely analyzed. The present study explores the case of a declining technology, employing the example of coal-fired power plants in Germany. These plants were promoted by governmental decision-makers as well as by the industry for a long time, but meanwhile, the phase-out or at least a cutback of coal-fired power plants is-not only in Germany-considered to be a key strategy for the transformation towards a sustainable society. Methods: We investigate potential pathways of the future development of the coal-fired power plant sector in an extended multi-level perspective (MLP) framework that integrates economic, social, political, and technical aspects. Results: Taking into account the fact that coal is losing its support from several important stakeholders (e.g., governmental decision-makers, utilities) due to, e.g., changes in the prioritization of political goals, changes in the economic framework, in actor constellations, and in public attitudes, coal-fired power plants tend to be pushed into niches or to disappear completely. Conclusions: A reasonable management of the niche technology "coal-fired power plants" could include a protection of space for ensuring a smooth removal of the links between the regime and the technology with respect to, e.g., social and environmental aspects. The phase-out pathways for the coal-fired power plants elaborated on in this paper help to better inform policy-makers to design transformation processes not only for coal-fired power but also for other declining technologies.
