Demographic scenarios by age, sex and education corresponding to the SSP narratives

被引:56
作者
Samir, K. C. [1 ]
Lutz, Wolfgang [1 ]
机构
[1] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Wittgenstein Ctr Demog & Global Human Capital IIA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
基金
欧洲研究理事会;
关键词
Population projections; Education; Age structure; Scenarios; Country level; SSP; WORLD-POPULATION;
D O I
10.1007/s11111-014-0205-4
中图分类号
C921 [人口统计学];
学科分类号
摘要
In this paper, we translate the five narratives as defined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) research community into five alternative demographic scenarios using projections by age, sex and level of education for 171 countries up to 2100. The scenarios represent a significant step beyond past population scenarios used in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change context, which considered only population size. The definitions of the medium assumptions about future fertility, mortality, migration and education trends are taken from a major new projections effort by the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital, while the assumptions for all the other scenarios were defined in interactions with other groups in the SSP community. Since a full data base with all country-specific results is available online, this paper can only highlight selected results.
引用
收藏
页码:243 / 260
页数:18
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