Grey relative analysis and future prediction on rural household biofuels consumption in China

By using the method of grey relative analysis, which can account for the time sequence, this paper carries out analyses for the relative relationship among the four major factors affecting the rural household biofuels consumption of each province/region in China through period 1991-1999. Based on the analytical results of the relative degrees and relative polarities, forecast models on the future consumption of crop residues and firewood in Chinese rural households are proposed. Furthermore, the future consumption of rural crop residues and firewood up to the year of 2020 is forecasted. These four factors include population per rural household, income per rural household, educational situation of laborers per rural household and food area per rural household. Results show that these four factors are closely related to rural household biofuels consumption in China. Among these, the relative relationship of population and food area per rural household to rural household biofuels consumption is positive, and that of the income and educational situation of laborers per household is negative. Forecast results show that the precision accuracies of forecast models are higher. The future total rural household biofuels consumption will decrease to 3388 PJ in 2020 from 6032 PJ in 1999 in China. The average annual decline rate in this period will reach 2.8%. This indicates that the rural household energy consumption will enter into a new stage in which biofuels will be gradually replaced by the high-quality energy types (with high combustion efficiency and easy to use), such as coal, gas, LPG and electricity, along with improvements in living standards and educational level in the rural household. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.