Pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: time series reconstruction (1970-2009) and comparison with incidence (2003-2008)

BACKGROUND: the large amount of asbestos used in many Countries (including Italy) is causing an epidemic of asbestos related diseases, which is still ongoing because of their long latency. OBJECTIVES: this study is aimed at reconstructing Italian time series of deaths for mesothelioma in the period 1970-2009 and comparing Italian incidence and mortality data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: deaths for pleural cancer (1970-2003,2006-2009) and mesothelioma (2003, 2006-2009) were recorded by the Italian Institute of Statistics (Istat) and provided by the Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), incidence cases (1993-2008) were provided by the Italian mesotheliomas register (ReNaM) at the Italian National Workers' Compensation Authority (Inail). For the period before ICD-10 implementation (1970-2002) and when Istat data (2004-2005) are lacking, mesothelioma deaths were estimated through statistical models (logistic, Poisson). National incidence and mortality data were compared during the overlapping period (2003, 2006-2008). RESULTS: the mortality curve strongly rises from 1970 and seems to be smoothed in the last years. Mortality caused by mesothelioma and incident cases with certain diagnosis are overlapping, as are mortality due to pleural cancer other than mesothelioma and mesothelioma incidence with uncertain diagnosis (probable/possible). CONCLUSIONS: this epidemiological analysis of deaths encoded as pleural tumour suggests to carefully investigate space-temporal distribution before excluding they could be mesotheliomas. Some new lights have been thrown on the statistical behaviour of mesothelioma mortality.