Re-entry predictions in support of the inter-agency space debris co-ordination committee test campaigns

Following the admission of the Italian Space Agency (ASI) in the Inter-Agency Space Debris Co-ordination Committee (IADC), the CNUCE Institute was involved, as the National Technical Contact Point, in the three test re-entry campaigns carried out between 1998 and 2000. The purpose of these campaigns was to test the timely distribution of data and information during high-risk reentries by means of the IADC international communication network. During the second campaign, a further analysis was also performed at CNUCE to assess the confidence level of our computed re-entry predictions. Different semi-empirical atmospheric density models were used at the same time to predict the satellite's orbital decay as a function of solar activity conditions and altitude. In particular, the performances of two widely used thermospheric models were investigated and the resulting re-entry forecasts compared. The aim of this paper is to present the results obtained and the lessons learned during these international exercises.