The effects of climate change on grape production in Hungary

Spatial distribution of several indices characterizing wine production in Hungary are analyzed in this paper using the bias-corrected outputs of three different regional climate models: RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS. For this purpose, the daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation time series were used. The indices include the active degree days, Huglin's heliothermal index, length of vegetation period according to thermal conditions, hydrothermal coefficient, and frequencies of extreme temperature events. In the study, first, the past changes of these indices are evaluated, and then, the main focus is on the projected changes until the end of the 21st century. Our results suggest that white wine grapes are very likely to lose their dominance over red wine grapes in Hungary in the next few decades. Furthermore, the ripening of late-ripening and very-late-ripening grape varieties will become more likely. Extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, while the risk of frost damage in the reproductive cycle is projected to decrease.