Prediction of insect populations in grain storage

Data on population growth rates for four insect species were used to develop prediction models of populations in grain stores. The form of the model was based on an existing insect model from the literature. The species chosen (Rhyzopertha dominica, Sitophilus oryzae, Oryzaephilus surinamensis and Tribolium castaneum) represent common Australian grain storage pests. The resulting models were incorporated into a one-dimensional drying and aeration simulation program, and plots of predicted populations at different levels during drying and aeration were obtained. The model was found to predict growth rates under tropical conditions in good agreement with laboratory data. Agreement was poorest at low temperatures and for Sitophilus oryzae only, at low relative humidities. The model consistently explained about 95% of the variance in the data for each species. Psychrometric plots of the data and model are presented. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.