Statistical analysis of domino chemical accidents

被引：89

作者：

Kourniotis, SP ^{[1
]}

Kiranoudis, CT ^{[1
]}

Markatos, NC ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Tech Univ Athens, Dept Chem Engn, GR-15780 Athens, Greece

来源：

JOURNAL OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS | 2000年 / 71卷 / 1-3期

关键词：

domino chemical accidents; statistical analysis; Bayesian inference;

D O I：

10.1016/S0304-3894(99)00081-3

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A set of chemical accidents is retrieved from the literature and classified with regard to the substance involved and whether domino effects are present. This set of accidents and each of the classes defined are statistically analyzed with respect to its severity and comparison is made between domino and non-domino accidents. The analysis reveals that each accident category shows characteristic patterns in terms of fatalities caused and domino effects likelihood. Moreover, chemical accidents severity frequencies are described by using a two-parameter, revised form of the Pareto probability density function. The range within which the values of the parameters lie is investigated using Bayesian inference. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：239 / 252

页数：14