Estimation of the Serial Interval of Influenza

被引：140
作者：
Cowling, Benjamin J. [1 ]
Fang, Vicky J.
Riley, Steven
Peiris, J. S. Malik [2 ]
Leung, Gabriel M.
机构：
[1] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Dept Community Med, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
[2] Univ Hong Kong, Li Ka Shing Fac Med, Dept Microbiol, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
来源：
EPIDEMIOLOGY | 2009年 / 20卷 / 03期
基金：
美国国家卫生研究院;
关键词：
TRANSMISSION; INFECTION; OUTBREAK;
D O I：
10.1097/EDE.0b013e31819d1092
中图分类号：
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号：
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要：
Background: Estimates of the clinical-onset serial interval of human influenza infection (time between onset of symptoms in an index case and a secondary case) are used to inform public health policy and to construct mathematical models of influenza transmission. We estimate the serial interval of laboratory-confirmed influenza transmission in households. Methods: Index cases were recruited after reporting to a primary healthcare center with symptoms. Members of their households were followed-up with repeated home visits. Results: Assuming a Weibull model and accounting for selection bias inherent in our field study design, we used symptom-onset times from 14 pairs of infector/infectee to estimate a mean serial interval of 3.6 days (95% confidence interval = 2.9-4.3 days), with standard deviation 1.6 days. Conclusion: The household serial interval of influenza may be longer than previously estimated. Studies of the complete serial interval, based on transmission in all community contexts, are a priority.
引用
收藏
页码：344 / 347
页数：4
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