Scenarios for vehicular air pollutant emissions abatement: a case study in Hangzhou, China

Motor vehicles are the major source of urban air pollution. The abatement of air pollutant emissions is an urgent task for environmental protection. This paper simulated the abatement for carbon monoxide (CO), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NO (x) ), and particular matter (PM) emissions from vehicles under four scenarios in the year 2015 in Hangzhou, China. It was found that the emissions of CO, VOCs, NO (x) , and PM from vehicles were 440.551, 23.079, 44.255, and 6.532 kt/a in 2010 in Hangzhou, respectively. The vehicle population will increase to over 1.2 million with a 60.7% growth rate until 2015 (estimated). Based on the scenario analysis, it was found that eliminating substandard vehicles and upgrading vehicle's standards could help reduce CO and VOCs effectively, while the expected abatement of NO (x) and PM would be offset by the rapid increase in the vehicle numbers. It was also found that integrated measurements, including eliminating substandard vehicles, upgrading vehicle standards, supplying low sulfur oil, and introducing alternative fuel vehicles could simultaneously reduce the four key pollutants. These integrated policies make it possible to reduce 250.197, 10.270, 1.791, and 0.335 kt/a CO, VOCs, NO (x) , and PM with 56.79%, 44.50%, 4.05%, and 5.14% decrease rates in 2015, respectively, when compared to those in 2010.