Hyperbolic discounting and the repeated self-control problem

I consider a person who faces self-control problems more than once, and provide an answer for why a person who has yielded to temptation once is more likely to yield the next time. The explanation is based on the assumption that a decision-maker is not certain of his willpower. A person's yielding to temptation at an early stage signals a low ability of self-control to himself, which, through diminution of self-confidence, increases the possibility that he will fail in self-control again the next time. This explanation corresponds with the self-fulfilling prophecy in psychological literature. Furthermore, I demonstrate that, due to this self-confidence effect, a person may not make a resolution in the first round if he is really concerned about the possibility of a failure leading to a likely fatal outcome in the next round which is more important to him. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.