HEAT WAVES AND THEIR ESTIMATED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT IN BUCHAREST CITY, ROMANIA

Heat waves are one of the most important extreme phenomena that are subject to important changes under present global warming conditions. In this study a complex analysis of heat waves over a period of 53 year (1961-2013) was performed. Daily maximum temperature data have been used in order to detect the heat waves based on 95th percentile threshold. Then the annual series of number of heat waves, their mean and maximum duration, as well as their cumulated duration have been constructed. The four series were then subject to trend detection by employing Mann-Kandall and Sen's slope methods. The main results are: statistically significant increase was detected in all four parameters time series considered; the maximum annual values of the parameters are about four times higher compared to the mean annual number calculated for the entire period. The estimated social and economical impact is important to be determined in terms of response at community level, institutional level as well as at individual level. The impact could first imply modification regarding the consumption of electricity and major differences in the daily consumption basket. Also, as a direct consequence of heat waves it is expected the hospitalization costs increase due to the number of heat induced casualties and a decrease in the work performance resulting in an estimated loss in Gross Domestic Product.