Modeling the 2016-2017 Yemen cholera outbreak with the impact of limited medical resources

被引：30

作者：

He, Daihai ^{[1
]}

Wang, Xueying ^{[2
]}

Gao, Daozhou ^{[3
]}

Wang, Jin ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Hong Kong Polytech Univ, Dept Appl Math, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[2] Washington State Univ, Dept Math, Pullman, WA 99164 USA

[3] Shanghai Normal Univ, Coll Math & Sci, Shanghai 200234, Peoples R China

[4] Univ Tennessee, Dept Math, Chattanooga, TN 37403 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF THEORETICAL BIOLOGY | 2018年 / 451卷

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Yemen cholera outbreak; mathematical modeling; data fitting; DYNAMICS; TRANSMISSION; PATHOGEN; NUMBERS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jtbi.2018.04.041

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We present a mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of the 2016-2017 Yemen cholera outbreak. Our model describes the interaction between the human hosts and the pathogenic bacteria, under the impact of limited medical resources. We fit our model to Yemen epidemic data published by the World Health Organization, at both the country and regional levels. We find that the Yemen cholera outbreak is shaped by the interplay of environmental, socioeconomic, and climatic factors. Our results suggest that improvement of the public health system and strategic implementation of control measures with respect to time and location are key to future cholera prevention and intervention in Yemen. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：80 / 85

页数：6

共 17 条

[1] NEW LOOK AT STATISTICAL-MODEL IDENTIFICATION [J].

AKAIKE, H .

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUTOMATIC CONTROL, 1974, AC19 (06) :716-723

[2]

Akaike H., 1985, CELEBRATION STAT, P1

[3]

[Anonymous], 2017, WHO WEEKLY EPID 1113

[4]

Constantin de Magny Guillaume, 2009, Trans Am Clin Climatol Assoc, V120, P119

[5]

DIEKMANN O, 1990, J MATH BIOL, V28, P365

[6] ITERATED FILTERING [J].

Ionides, Edward L. ;

Bhadra, Anindya ;

Atchade, Yves ;

King, Aaron .

ANNALS OF STATISTICS, 2011, 39 (03) :1776-1802

[7]

King AA., 2016, J. Stat. Softw, V69, P1, DOI DOI 10.18637/JSS.V069.I12

[8] Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics [J].

King, Aaron A. ;

Ionides, Edward L. ;

Pascual, Mercedes ;

Bouma, Menno J. .

NATURE, 2008, 454 (7206) :877-U29

[9] Estimating the reproductive numbers for the 2008-2009 cholera outbreaks in Zimbabwe [J].

Mukandavire, Zindoga ;

Liao, Shu ;

Wang, Jin ;

Gaff, Holly ;

Smith, David L. ;

Morris, J. Glenn, Jr. .

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2011, 108 (21) :8767-8772

[10] Cholera transmission: the host, pathogen and bacteriophage dynamic [J].

Nelson, Eric J. ;

Harris, Jason B. ;

Morris, J. Glenn, Jr. ;

Calderwood, Stephen B. ;

Camilli, Andrew .

NATURE REVIEWS MICROBIOLOGY, 2009, 7 (10) :693-702

← 1 2 →