Time-varying Characteristic Based Load Forecasting Method for Distribution Network with DGs

Middle-term and long-term load forecasting is important for planning of distribution network. With DG (distributed generation) integrated into network, the net load demand of HV/MV transformers become more complicated, load forecasting encounters greater challenge than ever. Uncertainty of wind and solar power has greatly influenced the load characteristics. A new load forecasting method for distribution network with DGs is proposed in this paper, which concerns time-varying characteristic of DG output power. Firstly, we get the conventional spatial load forecasting results. Then, using Monte Carlo simulation, we get the time-varying characteristic of DG. Lastly, superposing time-varying characteristics of conventional load and DGs, we can get the net-load forecasting result for distribution network.