The Adaptive-Clustering and Error-Correction Method for Forecasting Cyanobacteria Blooms in Lakes and Reservoirs

Globally, cyanobacteria blooms frequently occur, and effective prediction of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs could constitute an essential proactive strategy for water-resource protection. However, cyanobacteria blooms are very complicated because of the internal stochastic nature of the system evolution and the external uncertainty of the observation data. In this study, an adaptive-clustering algorithm is introduced to obtain some typical operating intervals. In addition, the number of nearest neighbors used for modeling was optimized by particle swarm optimization. Finally, a fuzzy linear regression method based on error-correction was used to revise the model dynamically near the operating point. We found that the combined method can characterize the evolutionary track of cyanobacteria blooms in lakes and reservoirs. The model constructed in this paper is compared to other cyanobacteria-bloom forecasting methods (e.g., phase space reconstruction and traditional-clustering linear regression), and, then, the average relative error and average absolute error are used to compare the accuracies of these models. The results suggest that the proposed model is superior. As such, the newly developed approach achieves more precise predictions, which can be used to prevent the further deterioration of the water environment.