The Pathosystem Solanum tuberosum L.-Phytophthora infestans (Mont.) de Bary in Chapingo, Mexico. Expected, Observed, and Simulated

The 1:1 ratio of the Phytophthora infestans A1 and A2 mating types favors the sexually derived genetic diversity of the late blight pathogen of potatoes, which is widespread in the central highlands of M,xico. This ratio guarantees the successful infection of this pathogen, even in resistant potato hosts. However, wild Solanum species present in the region serve as alternative hosts to the pathogen. Knowledge about the external factors that influence the dynamics of this disease facilitates the assessment and selection for genetically resistant potato cultivars to late blight, in addition to providing the capacity to predict epidemics. This work aimed to assess the expected, observed, and simulated progress of natural P. infestans infection of potatoes during two epiphytotic field seasons (2009 and 2010) at Chapingo, M,xico. Using 8-years of weather datasets, six ideal situations were predicted with four to eight infection cycles of 6 to 12 h each. In comparison to the predictions, the observed effect of the area under the disease progress curve, and its components (AUDPC, RAUDPC, RaRAUDPC), was highly significant, with a low coefficient of variation among the potato cultivars used in the study. In conclusion, we confirm that the LATEBLIGHT-LB2004 model is useful for simulating and predicting late blight epidemics based on the weather conditions of Chapingo, except for the magnitude of the relative humidity threshold variable (RH_threshold), which requires calibration for each cultivar.